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This time, we're starting with an inflation rate that's too low and heading lower, ... What that means is the Fed will sit still until such time as it sees inflation start turning up -- which might not happen until late 2004 or early 2005. - Lyle Gramley Quotes

This time, we're starting with an inflation rate that's too low and heading lower, ... What that means is the Fed will sit still until such time as it sees inflation start turning up -- which might not happen until late 2004 or early 2005.

I don't think we're going to get a yo-yo. We're going to get a first-rate chairman. - Lyle Gramley Quotes

I don't think we're going to get a yo-yo. We're going to get a first-rate chairman.

I don't think we're going to get a yo-yo, ... We're going to get a first-rate chairman. - Lyle Gramley Quotes

I don't think we're going to get a yo-yo, ... We're going to get a first-rate chairman.

It's entirely possible you could repeal tax cuts without injuring the economy if you did it carefully, over a period of time, while offsetting it in part by increasing expenditures you knew were coming anyway or thought desirable. But you couldn't simply remove the tax cuts altogether right away and avoid significant negative effects to the economy. - Lyle Gramley Quotes

It's entirely possible you could repeal tax cuts without injuring the economy if you did it carefully, over a period of time, while offsetting it in part by increasing expenditures you knew were coming anyway or thought desirable. But you couldn't simply remove the tax cuts altogether right away and avoid significant negative effects to the economy.

This is a situation where the uncertainties have suddenly become huge. If all the concerns translate into much lower personal spending, then the economy could falter. - Lyle Gramley Quotes

This is a situation where the uncertainties have suddenly become huge. If all the concerns translate into much lower personal spending, then the economy could falter.

The Fed is looking at an economy right now that is growing strongly with upside risks to inflation. - Lyle Gramley Quotes

The Fed is looking at an economy right now that is growing strongly with upside risks to inflation.

The Fed is looking at an economy right now that is growing strongly with upside risks to inflation. - Lyle Gramley Quotes

The Fed is looking at an economy right now that is growing strongly with upside risks to inflation.

I do think a pause is coming along at some point. My guess has been all along that a pause was more likely in the first meeting of next year than in December. The October employment report strengthens that view. - Lyle Gramley Quotes

I do think a pause is coming along at some point. My guess has been all along that a pause was more likely in the first meeting of next year than in December. The October employment report strengthens that view.

I don't know what the bond market has been worried about. There's much talk about the possibility of inflation beginning to pick up. I don't see any signs of that at all apart from the rise in energy prices, which we all knew was going to take place. - Lyle Gramley Quotes

I don't know what the bond market has been worried about. There's much talk about the possibility of inflation beginning to pick up. I don't see any signs of that at all apart from the rise in energy prices, which we all knew was going to take place.

If you raise interest rates in the face of what you know will be some pretty awful economic numbers, you must have a lot of confidence about the economy's ultimate recovery and a lot of concern about inflation. - Lyle Gramley Quotes

If you raise interest rates in the face of what you know will be some pretty awful economic numbers, you must have a lot of confidence about the economy's ultimate recovery and a lot of concern about inflation.

He is not going to stray far. - Lyle Gramley Quotes

He is not going to stray far.

Financial markets are going to become uneasy about this because Alan Greenspan has become an oracle, - Lyle Gramley Quotes

Financial markets are going to become uneasy about this because Alan Greenspan has become an oracle,

Not only is he as mentally acute as the average 77-year-old, he's as acute as the average 27-year-old. He has a phenomenal mind and very good judgment, ... People close to the decision-making at the Fed are almost unanimously in great praise of him, as I would be. I think it's a wonderful thing for the Fed and for the country that he's being kept on. - Lyle Gramley Quotes

Not only is he as mentally acute as the average 77-year-old, he's as acute as the average 27-year-old. He has a phenomenal mind and very good judgment, ... People close to the decision-making at the Fed are almost unanimously in great praise of him, as I would be. I think it's a wonderful thing for the Fed and for the country that he's being kept on.

If this deterioration continues, I think the chances of another rate cut are going to increase significantly, and I wouldn't rule out the possibility of an inter-meeting move, - Lyle Gramley Quotes

If this deterioration continues, I think the chances of another rate cut are going to increase significantly, and I wouldn't rule out the possibility of an inter-meeting move,

My own preference would be for the Fed to state explicitly what it's aiming at, ... That would be helpful in quieting the bond market. But I don't think it's going to happen. - Lyle Gramley Quotes

My own preference would be for the Fed to state explicitly what it's aiming at, ... That would be helpful in quieting the bond market. But I don't think it's going to happen.

Greenspan did not participate in supplying numbers for that forecast -- he refused to do so -- and sometimes in his testimony he didn't even mention the forecast. - Lyle Gramley Quotes

Greenspan did not participate in supplying numbers for that forecast -- he refused to do so -- and sometimes in his testimony he didn't even mention the forecast.

I don't think he'll let himself be dragged into that kind response to both sides of political fence. - Lyle Gramley Quotes

I don't think he'll let himself be dragged into that kind response to both sides of political fence.

This is an economy that's been struggling to keep its head above water for some time, so this kind of a rise in long-term interest rates is not welcome at this point, - Lyle Gramley Quotes

This is an economy that's been struggling to keep its head above water for some time, so this kind of a rise in long-term interest rates is not welcome at this point,

He's not going to be the world's oracle. - Lyle Gramley Quotes

He's not going to be the world's oracle.

It doesn't seem to me at all appropriate for a secretary of the Treasury to make such comments in any event, - Lyle Gramley Quotes

It doesn't seem to me at all appropriate for a secretary of the Treasury to make such comments in any event,

I think the Fed opened the door for a half-percentage-point increase in August, if it's needed, - Lyle Gramley Quotes

I think the Fed opened the door for a half-percentage-point increase in August, if it's needed,

His answer was an honest one -- I think the markets misinterpreted what I said. - Lyle Gramley Quotes

His answer was an honest one -- I think the markets misinterpreted what I said.

We still face a longer-range deficit problem and that will be exacerbated by increases in Medicare and Social Security payments, ... It would be helpful to bring our budget deficit down longer-term. I worry more about that than this temporary increase in the deficit. - Lyle Gramley Quotes

We still face a longer-range deficit problem and that will be exacerbated by increases in Medicare and Social Security payments, ... It would be helpful to bring our budget deficit down longer-term. I worry more about that than this temporary increase in the deficit.

Anyone who sits at that table knows that if the Fed puts his head up in the midst of an election campaign when it's not necessary to do so, that would be a rather foolish thing to do. You don't want people shooting at you unnecessarily - you'd rather live to fight another day. - Lyle Gramley Quotes

Anyone who sits at that table knows that if the Fed puts his head up in the midst of an election campaign when it's not necessary to do so, that would be a rather foolish thing to do. You don't want people shooting at you unnecessarily - you'd rather live to fight another day.

I don't think he is going to go way out on a limb. - Lyle Gramley Quotes

I don't think he is going to go way out on a limb.

Crisis management has been elevated to a very fine skill under his tutelage. - Lyle Gramley Quotes

Crisis management has been elevated to a very fine skill under his tutelage.

I can't interpret this report as a weak economy, and I don't think the Fed will either. They are going to persist in moving interest rates up until they see greater indications than what we have now that either the economy is weakening, or inflation is getting under control, or both. - Lyle Gramley Quotes

I can't interpret this report as a weak economy, and I don't think the Fed will either. They are going to persist in moving interest rates up until they see greater indications than what we have now that either the economy is weakening, or inflation is getting under control, or both.

I don't think there's any doubt they'll go to 5 percent in May. I expect them to sit still after that. - Lyle Gramley Quotes

I don't think there's any doubt they'll go to 5 percent in May. I expect them to sit still after that.

Doubt

The housing market is fading. - Lyle Gramley Quotes

The housing market is fading.

The Fed will be content to sit on the sidelines to await more definitive evidence as to whether inflation is going to be a problem or not, ... Setting the election aside entirely, the Fed, looking at the incoming data, would say to itself 'right now we don't want to raise interest rates and we don't need to raise interest rates.' - Lyle Gramley Quotes

The Fed will be content to sit on the sidelines to await more definitive evidence as to whether inflation is going to be a problem or not, ... Setting the election aside entirely, the Fed, looking at the incoming data, would say to itself 'right now we don't want to raise interest rates and we don't need to raise interest rates.'

My concern is not with a double-dip recession. It's with the likelihood we are gong to be in an extended period of growth below potential, and that would mean rising unemployment. - Lyle Gramley Quotes

My concern is not with a double-dip recession. It's with the likelihood we are gong to be in an extended period of growth below potential, and that would mean rising unemployment.

I think the Fed needs to worry about the possibility it's flirting with deflation if it lets this go too far. When nominal rates get down toward zero, the Fed starts running out of ammunition. - Lyle Gramley Quotes

I think the Fed needs to worry about the possibility it's flirting with deflation if it lets this go too far. When nominal rates get down toward zero, the Fed starts running out of ammunition.

Greenspan is not a guy likely to brag much, but he'll indicate the economy is still in good condition, that much of the recent bubbling up in inflation is likely to prove transitory, and that fundamentals of the economy are still quite strong despite some of the recent data. - Lyle Gramley Quotes

Greenspan is not a guy likely to brag much, but he'll indicate the economy is still in good condition, that much of the recent bubbling up in inflation is likely to prove transitory, and that fundamentals of the economy are still quite strong despite some of the recent data.

There would be no easy answer, - Lyle Gramley Quotes

There would be no easy answer,

I think he's well aware of the fact they need to improve (communication). It's very a difficult thing to do. I think they're improving. - Lyle Gramley Quotes

I think he's well aware of the fact they need to improve (communication). It's very a difficult thing to do. I think they're improving.

Then the Fed would be in a very tough spot, - Lyle Gramley Quotes

Then the Fed would be in a very tough spot,

What the Fed is trying to do, by being more transparent and more communicative, is highly desirable. But there are going to slips along the way. Ben will learn and the markets will learn. - Lyle Gramley Quotes

What the Fed is trying to do, by being more transparent and more communicative, is highly desirable. But there are going to slips along the way. Ben will learn and the markets will learn.

whoever they pick has a considerable degree of background and expertise on monetary policy. - Lyle Gramley Quotes

whoever they pick has a considerable degree of background and expertise on monetary policy.

He wondered what I was doing and what he might do. I replied that when he leaves government service he's worth an enormous amount of money. - Lyle Gramley Quotes

He wondered what I was doing and what he might do. I replied that when he leaves government service he's worth an enormous amount of money.

Being Fed chairman only increases his value that much more. - Lyle Gramley Quotes

Being Fed chairman only increases his value that much more.

Value

The apparent bubbling up of inflation we saw earlier in the year has quieted down again. Basically it's a picture of inflation staying reasonably tranquil. The Fed should like that. - Lyle Gramley Quotes

The apparent bubbling up of inflation we saw earlier in the year has quieted down again. Basically it's a picture of inflation staying reasonably tranquil. The Fed should like that.

The markets are helping the Fed accomplish what it's seeking, to slow down the economy a bit, take some of the froth off, - Lyle Gramley Quotes

The markets are helping the Fed accomplish what it's seeking, to slow down the economy a bit, take some of the froth off,

I don't think the evidence that small businesses are affected adversely is terribly compelling, ... I think tax cuts had a useful role in getting the economy going again, but we probably could have accomplished much of that with a narrower, more focused tax cut. - Lyle Gramley Quotes

I don't think the evidence that small businesses are affected adversely is terribly compelling, ... I think tax cuts had a useful role in getting the economy going again, but we probably could have accomplished much of that with a narrower, more focused tax cut.

The bottom line is that their principal concern is that inflation might go lower, so we'll get the same kind of statement we got last time. - Lyle Gramley Quotes

The bottom line is that their principal concern is that inflation might go lower, so we'll get the same kind of statement we got last time.

I would interpret higher stock prices in two ways, ... It's an indication of improving confidence in the economy's recovery, and it increases the confidence and wealth of consumers, adding to consumer spending. - Lyle Gramley Quotes

I would interpret higher stock prices in two ways, ... It's an indication of improving confidence in the economy's recovery, and it increases the confidence and wealth of consumers, adding to consumer spending.

There are a lot of worries circulating around about deflation, ... What the Fed is doing is saying we don't need to worry. If deflation happens, they will counter aggressively, and they have the tools to do so. - Lyle Gramley Quotes

There are a lot of worries circulating around about deflation, ... What the Fed is doing is saying we don't need to worry. If deflation happens, they will counter aggressively, and they have the tools to do so.

He will make the point that, if tax breaks go through, they need to be accompanied by firm discipline on the spending side, ... He's not going to actively oppose [Bush's] proposals -- that would be uncharacteristic. - Lyle Gramley Quotes

He will make the point that, if tax breaks go through, they need to be accompanied by firm discipline on the spending side, ... He's not going to actively oppose [Bush's] proposals -- that would be uncharacteristic.

Mortgage rates haven't been significantly lower than the rates we have today since the 1960s. - Lyle Gramley Quotes

Mortgage rates haven't been significantly lower than the rates we have today since the 1960s.

This is a very different recovery than any I've seen -- there's none of the dynamism or momentum we normally see, - Lyle Gramley Quotes

This is a very different recovery than any I've seen -- there's none of the dynamism or momentum we normally see,

That wouldn't happen with just any Joe Blow. - Lyle Gramley Quotes

That wouldn't happen with just any Joe Blow.

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